It is very gratifying to be a futurist who is actually right.
Reshoring NBC (my reply at the bottom of their page under comments)
Notice the title includes "manufacturing cost" and says nothing about wages: a distinct difference.
One of the reasons this information wasn't out four years ago is that the foreign trade gurus are all economists and don't understand manufacturing in any scope less than Alcoa, Boeing, or GM. They have no clue. I have pestered the heck out of them for years. It's good to be ahead and watching them tail along.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Those who can don't
There is an old highly inaccurate saying, "Those who can do. Those who can't teach."
Too general at best, a slap in the educators face at worst.
I agree that most of the teachers I know have never done but many have. Many like me got into teaching after doing half their life. But the most overlooked part of can't is that unless one has the opportunity to do then we should not conclude that some are incapable of it. Many of them are simply stuck in a career that gives them very little opportunity to experiment in the real world.
I have had this conversation with many colleagues who have worked a good portion of their life in the economy and then changed to teaching later on. I have also discussed it with some great educators who made the shift to industry and have shown precisely that yes; they can.
Most of us who did before we started teaching are of the same opinion: academia and academicians are pretty horrible managers and overseers of those of us who did. They simply can't grasp the notion that teaching technology by technologist is not like English, History, Math, Art, taught by certified lifelong academics. The deans and mangers and vice presidents are almost all inveterate educators without ever doing anything. Indeed they are very bright and highly educated and one cannot make it to even the lowest rank without a Masters Degree... and the vast majority have a more advanced degree in education which is most often an EdD from a soft college of extended education like The University of Phoenix . They know how to teach for sure but they know nothing of the real world outside. So this makes it difficult for technology types to teach without constant "academic" suggestion from theorists. For example I stopped using a book to teach CNC programming because "text" books were horribly written and oft times incorrect. So I taught with notes and handouts and computer lab software. But they hit me on it. When I went to renew the justification for the course one of the supercilious academics pointed out that I hadn't put a book title in the course outline and she would not accept my reasoning. The course would not be approved unless there was a text book assigned which of course milked the student out of $50 and made money for the book store. So these educators can't.
As an aside a good program at Cerritos is the requirement that all full time teachers take further education classes or seminars or go to conventions and such. I learned a lot that way... in fact I learned all of my teaching theory by going to the trade shows and the like and attending the breakouts and lectures. They helped me a lot. End of aside.
Now as for those teaches who left for industry I know many. One particular lady who worked out of Cal State LA (the best school for web authoring online learning) taught me a tremendous amount about producing, asset collecting, videography, etc. She ended up taking the job of Vice President of Education at Boeing Aircraft in San Antonio. Not only does she make five times the money but she daily demonstrates without a shadow of a doubt that she can.
I think that academics come to understand that they can't and for those who are afraid to go out into the real world and learn they carry a grudge of some sort against those of us who have done. I think many of them are really angry about it all but it's not the doers fault. They need to understand that.
In conclusion I think that those who teach technology should have worked professionally in the subject for a good long time which gives them, and only them, the perspective from both sides of the fence.
Too general at best, a slap in the educators face at worst.
I agree that most of the teachers I know have never done but many have. Many like me got into teaching after doing half their life. But the most overlooked part of can't is that unless one has the opportunity to do then we should not conclude that some are incapable of it. Many of them are simply stuck in a career that gives them very little opportunity to experiment in the real world.
I have had this conversation with many colleagues who have worked a good portion of their life in the economy and then changed to teaching later on. I have also discussed it with some great educators who made the shift to industry and have shown precisely that yes; they can.
Most of us who did before we started teaching are of the same opinion: academia and academicians are pretty horrible managers and overseers of those of us who did. They simply can't grasp the notion that teaching technology by technologist is not like English, History, Math, Art, taught by certified lifelong academics. The deans and mangers and vice presidents are almost all inveterate educators without ever doing anything. Indeed they are very bright and highly educated and one cannot make it to even the lowest rank without a Masters Degree... and the vast majority have a more advanced degree in education which is most often an EdD from a soft college of extended education like The University of Phoenix . They know how to teach for sure but they know nothing of the real world outside. So this makes it difficult for technology types to teach without constant "academic" suggestion from theorists. For example I stopped using a book to teach CNC programming because "text" books were horribly written and oft times incorrect. So I taught with notes and handouts and computer lab software. But they hit me on it. When I went to renew the justification for the course one of the supercilious academics pointed out that I hadn't put a book title in the course outline and she would not accept my reasoning. The course would not be approved unless there was a text book assigned which of course milked the student out of $50 and made money for the book store. So these educators can't.
As an aside a good program at Cerritos is the requirement that all full time teachers take further education classes or seminars or go to conventions and such. I learned a lot that way... in fact I learned all of my teaching theory by going to the trade shows and the like and attending the breakouts and lectures. They helped me a lot. End of aside.
Now as for those teaches who left for industry I know many. One particular lady who worked out of Cal State LA (the best school for web authoring online learning) taught me a tremendous amount about producing, asset collecting, videography, etc. She ended up taking the job of Vice President of Education at Boeing Aircraft in San Antonio. Not only does she make five times the money but she daily demonstrates without a shadow of a doubt that she can.
I think that academics come to understand that they can't and for those who are afraid to go out into the real world and learn they carry a grudge of some sort against those of us who have done. I think many of them are really angry about it all but it's not the doers fault. They need to understand that.
In conclusion I think that those who teach technology should have worked professionally in the subject for a good long time which gives them, and only them, the perspective from both sides of the fence.
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Manufacturing 101 part IIVMCI
Another indication of reshoring. This is a good and accurate article.
http://www.areadevelopment.com/LocationUSA/LocationUSA2012/US-competitive-revival-reshoring-trends-272726.shtml
Two major things here.
1) the emphasis is once again on the education of the Manufacturing work force. Why is it that the common citizen has this idea that there is no such thing as an educated US worker anymore? They all seem to know without doubt that education has failed completely. There is difference between failing completely and simply failing our expectations.
2) TCO (Total Cost of Ownership). Industrial Engineers are charged by the bean counters to know to the penny what the cost of manufacturing is. Most use a "fully burdened cost" to calculate. It works something like this. Pay, +, benefits, + taxes, + insurance (PBTI) shows a real cost per hour per employee. But it doesn't end there. If you are reporting to the bean counters it must be all inclusive and include all of the ancillary costs such as rent, and, supplies, and even toilet paper, PLUS management's PBTI. You are trying to find what the actual cost per hour per employee is when the employee is "fully burdened" with their share of other costs. China is losing more and more of the full burdened cost race.
Adding this: ROI means return on investment and is what the manufacturing engineer calculates to show what the profit will be if, for example, a new production line is built and installed in a facility. ROI is usually not considered in TCO since there is no history until it is actually built. ROI is what you need to give the bean counters to get the money to do it.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Science or math?
Do you believe the polls? You should... maybe.
This article from the NY Times is a sort of grade ranking for the numerous polls.
NY Times article near the bottom
Notice that the errors nearly always go in the Republicans favor a little. Why is that? Read the article but recognize the most important part. Land lines vs Cell phones. More and more people are shifting to cell phones only and they are much younger than the land liners. So the polls are always biased in favor of the land lines.. the more conservative older voters because the cell phone numbers are not available to [the polling companies]
Cell phones are taking the place of land lines even among the poor because they can buy a disposable cell phone for $20 that includes 100 minutes free for 90 days. Just up your minutes every 90 days so that you stay current and keep your phone number. These phones are popular with the young and the poor and is why the polls are in trouble.
Please note that Rasmussen has a pronounced right house-lean (the bias in their questions). They also do the Fox polls under the Pulse Opinion Research banner. They will lean far right until two months before the election and then they "correct" by leaning back towards the other polls over two months or so. See how accurate the polls are here.
So polls are slowly becoming insignificant unless someone can find a way to include the young and the poor.
This article from the NY Times is a sort of grade ranking for the numerous polls.
NY Times article near the bottom
Notice that the errors nearly always go in the Republicans favor a little. Why is that? Read the article but recognize the most important part. Land lines vs Cell phones. More and more people are shifting to cell phones only and they are much younger than the land liners. So the polls are always biased in favor of the land lines.. the more conservative older voters because the cell phone numbers are not available to [the polling companies]
Cell phones are taking the place of land lines even among the poor because they can buy a disposable cell phone for $20 that includes 100 minutes free for 90 days. Just up your minutes every 90 days so that you stay current and keep your phone number. These phones are popular with the young and the poor and is why the polls are in trouble.
Please note that Rasmussen has a pronounced right house-lean (the bias in their questions). They also do the Fox polls under the Pulse Opinion Research banner. They will lean far right until two months before the election and then they "correct" by leaning back towards the other polls over two months or so. See how accurate the polls are here.
So polls are slowly becoming insignificant unless someone can find a way to include the young and the poor.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Some quotes
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie presumably understands the GOP. A strong Romney supporter, Christie has excoriated Gingrich. "He was run out of the speakership by his own party," said Christie. "This is a guy who has had a very difficult political career at times and has been an embarrassment to the party." Jim Talent, former senator from Missouri and another former Gingrich colleague, also supports Romney, and attacks Newt lustily. "He is not a reliable and trustworthy conservative," Talent says, "because he is not a reliable and trustworthy leader." Ouch.
Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu, who worked closely with Gingrich when Newt was a top GOP leader in the House, has also thrown in his lot with Romney -- and has also volunteered to swing the hatchet. Sununu basically called Newt nuts, telling CNN, "You can't have somebody that's really as irrational and perceives himself as Winston Churchill or the equivalent of Margaret Thatcher or Charles de Gaulle."
Ari's White House colleague during the Bush years and current CNN colleague, David Frum, wrote Monday, "Over a political career of nearly 40 years, Gingrich has convinced almost everybody who has ever worked closely with him that he cannot and should not be trusted with executive power."
And if we may engage in speculation, then we would say that the closer you are to Gingrich, the more likely you are to be a Republican and the less likely you are to vote for him. Just recently, columnist George Will wrote in The Washington Post, "Gingrich, however, embodies the vanity and rapacity that make modern Washington repulsive."
Former Rep. Susan Molinari, who served with Gingrich in the House, has made an ad for Mitt Romney in which she rips her former colleague for "leadership by chaos." Molinari knows Newt well, as she was the keynote speaker at the 1996 Republican convention. Surely, she must know something about the Republican Party. When asked whether she would support Gingrich if he defeated her candidate for the nomination, she demurred, saying, "It would be very difficult for me to support Newt Gingrich for president."
From CNN.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think the GOP will allow Gingrich the chance everyone thinks he has. The things they can do to stop him are manifold. If you have thought, with justification, that Republicans will line up like trained ducks to vote the ticket you are incorrect this time around. The GOP is fragmenting.
Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu, who worked closely with Gingrich when Newt was a top GOP leader in the House, has also thrown in his lot with Romney -- and has also volunteered to swing the hatchet. Sununu basically called Newt nuts, telling CNN, "You can't have somebody that's really as irrational and perceives himself as Winston Churchill or the equivalent of Margaret Thatcher or Charles de Gaulle."
Ari's White House colleague during the Bush years and current CNN colleague, David Frum, wrote Monday, "Over a political career of nearly 40 years, Gingrich has convinced almost everybody who has ever worked closely with him that he cannot and should not be trusted with executive power."
And if we may engage in speculation, then we would say that the closer you are to Gingrich, the more likely you are to be a Republican and the less likely you are to vote for him. Just recently, columnist George Will wrote in The Washington Post, "Gingrich, however, embodies the vanity and rapacity that make modern Washington repulsive."
Former Rep. Susan Molinari, who served with Gingrich in the House, has made an ad for Mitt Romney in which she rips her former colleague for "leadership by chaos." Molinari knows Newt well, as she was the keynote speaker at the 1996 Republican convention. Surely, she must know something about the Republican Party. When asked whether she would support Gingrich if he defeated her candidate for the nomination, she demurred, saying, "It would be very difficult for me to support Newt Gingrich for president."
From CNN.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't think the GOP will allow Gingrich the chance everyone thinks he has. The things they can do to stop him are manifold. If you have thought, with justification, that Republicans will line up like trained ducks to vote the ticket you are incorrect this time around. The GOP is fragmenting.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Finally Winter again
No snow for more than a month or maybe way more than a month... back in November
Friday, January 20, 2012
Funny Funny
The primary is a RIOT!
I don't know what they are trying to accomplish? Its silly. They are so anti-Romney that they will support anyone else and are getting close to nominating a fat old political white man
Be careful what you wish for they say.
I don't know what they are trying to accomplish? Its silly. They are so anti-Romney that they will support anyone else and are getting close to nominating a fat old political white man
Be careful what you wish for they say.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
credit cards
I'm sometimes amazed at the kids online. One of them complained that his girlfriend was paying 24% interest on her credit card debt. I mentioned that they might consider getting a 0% visa card available at any bank.
"WHAT" they yelled. "YOU CAN'T GET A 0% VISA! YOU'RE FULL OF S-word". Sure you can. It's called a visa debit card that takes money out of your checking account and costs nothing. Then when you spend more than you have the debit VISA wont work anymore. It called NOT going in debt. They actually blew up at that with, "nobody does that.. you are a moron". It seems credit is a firm way of life theses days and the big banks know it and count on it and even encourage it. So don't blame all the nations problems on the government. Blame the kids and the banks too.
Of course I was a kid once and just as stupid, so....
"WHAT" they yelled. "YOU CAN'T GET A 0% VISA! YOU'RE FULL OF S-word". Sure you can. It's called a visa debit card that takes money out of your checking account and costs nothing. Then when you spend more than you have the debit VISA wont work anymore. It called NOT going in debt. They actually blew up at that with, "nobody does that.. you are a moron". It seems credit is a firm way of life theses days and the big banks know it and count on it and even encourage it. So don't blame all the nations problems on the government. Blame the kids and the banks too.
Of course I was a kid once and just as stupid, so....
Monday, January 16, 2012
How not to get a factory in your state.
Bureaucracy makes creating jobs a nightmare. I have seen this happen a zillion times. Politicians are just DUMB!
http://www.compositesworld.com/news/aircraft-manufacturer-kestrel-faces-financing-challenges-may-go-to-wisconsin
http://www.compositesworld.com/news/aircraft-manufacturer-kestrel-faces-financing-challenges-may-go-to-wisconsin
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Garden
This time last year I had broccoli seed in their little planters, and put up the freeze barrier on the green house.
This year I have done next to nuthin.
The Kenosha tooling arrived and I have been sorting through it and and stuff. Even have a storage space I rented downtown. It was a good buy.
But I have to get back to the garden... soon!
This year I have done next to nuthin.
The Kenosha tooling arrived and I have been sorting through it and and stuff. Even have a storage space I rented downtown. It was a good buy.
But I have to get back to the garden... soon!
Sunday, January 8, 2012
Saudi Arabia to make cars
"Saudi economic analysts are optimistic that automobile manufacturing in the kingdom will help reduce the economy’s reliance on oil exports. Yet roadblocks persist. Already the goal to manufacture car parts next year is in jeopardy as infrastructure and a trained labor pool are not in place. It begs the question of whether Saudi Arabia can pull off a massive undertaking within its stated timetable or even come close to it."
The highlighted is always always the problem.
I wonder if there will be a union organizer down there soon (snickering).
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
I'm a Christian
As is 80% of the nation says PEW
It is interesting to me that 26% of the nation is evangelical, 18% traditional protestant, 25% Catholic
I wish to send a message to all three:
You don't speak for all of us.
It is interesting to me that 26% of the nation is evangelical, 18% traditional protestant, 25% Catholic
I wish to send a message to all three:
You don't speak for all of us.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Incredible weather
I have been running around "like a hoop legged indian"* for the last few weeks... the sun is out. It has been in the high 50s to low 60s for two weeks or so now. My knee is finally accepting the stress from walking around. Man it took a long time to heal. More than a year but so sooooo glad I had them cut on me again.
Working in the shop/garage is standing on concrete for a long time and now my feet hurt from cheap shoes!!!!
But love it! SO happy I am good again as is Liz... 2012 is going to be a good year.
* it's a phrase Liz told me that her dad used when she was running up and down the stairs and making noise and otherwise acting like a six year old girl. Have no idea how that fits but...
Working in the shop/garage is standing on concrete for a long time and now my feet hurt from cheap shoes!!!!
But love it! SO happy I am good again as is Liz... 2012 is going to be a good year.
* it's a phrase Liz told me that her dad used when she was running up and down the stairs and making noise and otherwise acting like a six year old girl. Have no idea how that fits but...
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