I live in Utah.
If I vote for Obama next November it doesn't count. Utah is red and "all" the electoral college votes will go to the Republican candidate. If you live in New York or California its just the opposite... all their electoral votes will go to the Democrat.
So in effect solid red states and solid blue states don't even matter.
What matters is swing states that can go either way. In those states 40% are always going to vote for the Republican candidate and 40% always for the Democratic candidate. That leaves only 20% to make up their minds. If there are only 20% of the states that are swing states (10) and within those states there are only 20% of the voters who matter, then 20% of 20% is only 4% of the nations voters who elect the president. Think about it.
That is why there will be so much negative ad money spent on local tv/radio stations in those areas. You wont see most of them on your satellite and cable TV because they sell the vast majority of the ads local in those areas and the antenna TV from say Columbus OH wont show up on your set either.
If Obama wants to win re-election he is going to have to appeal to the moderate independents in the swing states. A super right social conservative wont be able to do that. Romney could possibly. The 4% swings are nearly always moderates and they just wont move that for right.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Correcting potato
Edited and corrected potato post
For mother, the garden forum, and Liz who reminds me she has always made 'tater salad with reds.
For mother, the garden forum, and Liz who reminds me she has always made 'tater salad with reds.
My introduction to getting old
It has been a hell of a year compared to how I felt like a 30 year old last year.
First the left knee wore out like the right one did 4 years ago. I was brave and optimistic about getting it fixed. After all I had the other knee to go by and was sure I could handle getting another operation. But I got the orthopod to scope it first as maybe there was just some cartridge spur or something that he could mend arthroscopically. "Go for it ", said my faux 30 year old brave little mind.
It didn't work.. all it did was confirm that the cartilage was worn out and that I needed a knee replacement? Well then why did I do it in the first place? because he presented it as an option. It wasn't as evasive as a replacement would have been. As it turns out my reading showed that a scope and mend is only 10% successful. Many if not most ortho pubs say its a waste of time. But it is also a waste of Medicare $$. The bill for the out patent scoping which took the orthopod less than an hour was $7000. Medicare paid it all. The follow up knee replacement four months later was over $20,000 which medicare paid 90% and Blue Cross the other 10%.
When politicians wail about waste, fraud, and abuse this is a good example... and when non partisan smart moderates say we can go a long way to reign in the waste in medicare, I'm proof that it is true.
More later...
First the left knee wore out like the right one did 4 years ago. I was brave and optimistic about getting it fixed. After all I had the other knee to go by and was sure I could handle getting another operation. But I got the orthopod to scope it first as maybe there was just some cartridge spur or something that he could mend arthroscopically. "Go for it ", said my faux 30 year old brave little mind.
It didn't work.. all it did was confirm that the cartilage was worn out and that I needed a knee replacement? Well then why did I do it in the first place? because he presented it as an option. It wasn't as evasive as a replacement would have been. As it turns out my reading showed that a scope and mend is only 10% successful. Many if not most ortho pubs say its a waste of time. But it is also a waste of Medicare $$. The bill for the out patent scoping which took the orthopod less than an hour was $7000. Medicare paid it all. The follow up knee replacement four months later was over $20,000 which medicare paid 90% and Blue Cross the other 10%.
When politicians wail about waste, fraud, and abuse this is a good example... and when non partisan smart moderates say we can go a long way to reign in the waste in medicare, I'm proof that it is true.
More later...
Friday, August 19, 2011
My New Motorcycle
LOL.. I am too old for a motorcycle... I'd break my parts.
But I do have a Kawasaki 250 ATV
But I do have a Kawasaki 250 ATV
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Funny Wall Street
The part timers, day traders, and other small traders are making Wall Street rich(er).
The market drops and the ones who know what they are doing buy. The Dow creeps back up and another bevy of insecure bail.
Now this is what's funny. What are the sellers buying after bailing? US Treasuries.
Remarkable
Of course some of them are buying gold at the high... shrug
The market drops and the ones who know what they are doing buy. The Dow creeps back up and another bevy of insecure bail.
Now this is what's funny. What are the sellers buying after bailing? US Treasuries.
Remarkable
Of course some of them are buying gold at the high... shrug
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
potatoes
Have reds and whites now. As far as I know you cant buy these in a supermarket. The whites Liz calls White Rose. The reds are just nice thin skinned reds.
EDIT. I am "sure" you can buy reds and whites in the store. What I meant was that since there a many varieties of reds and whites you probably wont get these in a store. Unless it's Whole Foods or wherever.
Red are Norland
Whites are Kennebec
Russets (not shown) are Norkota
These are not commercial potatoes and taste much different when grown organically if I do say so myself (which I do all the time) :)
EDIT. I am "sure" you can buy reds and whites in the store. What I meant was that since there a many varieties of reds and whites you probably wont get these in a store. Unless it's Whole Foods or wherever.
Red are Norland
Whites are Kennebec
Russets (not shown) are Norkota
These are not commercial potatoes and taste much different when grown organically if I do say so myself (which I do all the time) :)
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Indiana Fair tragedy
They were there to see Sugarland and to hear them. Sorry if this is insensitive but I wanted to post it for some reason. I love country music and the people.
this is a memorial
this is a memorial
Monday, August 8, 2011
Wow the DOW
It is no country for old men.
That's me by the way... an old man.
Kids will figure this out.
But if I was a kid and had $100k to gamble I would BUY.
Jeez, this market is strange.
That's me by the way... an old man.
Kids will figure this out.
But if I was a kid and had $100k to gamble I would BUY.
Jeez, this market is strange.
Friday, August 5, 2011
garden update
Have set up a Saturday morning farmers market... just to give away extra fruits and vegetables. We got tired of calling neighbors four or five times per summer asking them if they wanted any of our extra grown this or that.
So it's every Saturday morning 9:00 AM. I put it out there and neighbors come take what they want. Anything they don't take goes in the compost heap as we always have our refer full of fresh and a freezer full of much of the rest. I have invited other gardeners to leave their stuff too... organic only.
some pictures:
We have about 50 corn stalks each will grow at least one ear.
Butternut squash. I am going to slice it and southern fry. Tomatoes are now ripening (two months late) and have small fruit.
About twenty pounds of onions picked and drying out a week or so.
Small watermelon only a week old... about 6" diameter.
Several large 15lb watermelons ripening.
Great area for growing peppers. This is the biggest bell I have ever grown.
Pulsar Melon (salmon colored cantaloupe)
Cantaloupe
Chinese Cabbage doing well so far in this hot weather. I'm surprised.
Radish just popping up.
So it's every Saturday morning 9:00 AM. I put it out there and neighbors come take what they want. Anything they don't take goes in the compost heap as we always have our refer full of fresh and a freezer full of much of the rest. I have invited other gardeners to leave their stuff too... organic only.
some pictures:
Red and white potatoes have been available for almost a month now. I don't have to give these away because they can stay in the ground and be dug up as needed. When the green leaves die off I uproot them and toss away making sure the soil gets no more water. The parent plant will leave go their kids underground and the cool dirt and their own skins will preserve them a long time.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Doing the children's homework.
Got too many emails and comments about automobile unions.
The last word now.
http://www.jaw.or.jp/e/
Jaw is like the UAW in that is a conglomeration of all local Japanese unions
Toyota Motors JAW
Subaru JAW
Nissan JAW
Suzuki JAW
Honda JAW
Yamaha JAW
Korean automobile unions are not united as in Japan.
Each car maker has it's own union. Appropriate links attached
Kia link
Hyundai link
Daewoo link
India automakers
Almost all are owned and operated by Japanese, German, and American automakers.
But all are organized around All India Trade Union Congress link
For Europe
Germany link
England .. okay I am getting tired of doing your homework.
Please look it up yourself. Use google.
You will find every automobile made anywhere in the world is built with organized labor.
All except in right-to-work States in the south.
I will post again as to why this is, but it is... accept it.
This is a fact that people like Patty (or other super conservatives) will never know because they refuse to lift their head from the ground
And listen here, I am not left wacko liberal. I value truth, that's all. Especially if it has to do with my properly acquired and learned profession. Please be an expert if you want to argue. Otherwise do not leave comments or send email.
Thank you
Ron
The last word now.
http://www.jaw.or.jp/e/
Jaw is like the UAW in that is a conglomeration of all local Japanese unions
Toyota Motors JAW
Subaru JAW
Nissan JAW
Suzuki JAW
Honda JAW
Yamaha JAW
Korean automobile unions are not united as in Japan.
Each car maker has it's own union. Appropriate links attached
Kia link
Hyundai link
Daewoo link
India automakers
Almost all are owned and operated by Japanese, German, and American automakers.
But all are organized around All India Trade Union Congress link
For Europe
Germany link
England .. okay I am getting tired of doing your homework.
Please look it up yourself. Use google.
You will find every automobile made anywhere in the world is built with organized labor.
All except in right-to-work States in the south.
I will post again as to why this is, but it is... accept it.
This is a fact that people like Patty (or other super conservatives) will never know because they refuse to lift their head from the ground
And listen here, I am not left wacko liberal. I value truth, that's all. Especially if it has to do with my properly acquired and learned profession. Please be an expert if you want to argue. Otherwise do not leave comments or send email.
Thank you
Ron
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Been sick
I've had a sinus infection for more than a week. Finally went to doc and got antibiotics.
It's been really hard to work the garden 'cause all this has weakened me. Liz has helped a lot.
Should be fixed in two days.
It's been really hard to work the garden 'cause all this has weakened me. Liz has helped a lot.
Should be fixed in two days.
Monday, August 1, 2011
David Frum
I'm a Republican. Always have been. I believe in free markets, low taxes, reasonable regulation and limited government. But as I look back at the weeks of rancor leading up to Sunday night's last-minute budget deal, I see some things I don't believe in:
Forcing the United States to the verge of default.
Shrugging off the needs and concerns of millions of unemployed.
Protecting every single loophole, giveaway and boondoggle in the tax code as a matter of fundamental conservative principle.
Massive government budget cuts in the midst of the worst recession since World War II.
I am not alone.
Only about one-third of Republicans agree that cutting government spending should be the country's top priority. Only about one-quarter of Republicans insist the budget be balanced without any tax increases.
Yet that one-third and that one-quarter have come to dominate my party. That one-third and that one-quarter forced a debt standoff that could have ended in default and a second Great Recession. That one-third and that one-quarter have effectively written the "no new taxes pledge" into national law.
There was another way. There still is.
Give me a hammer and a church-house door, and I'd post these theses for modern Republicans:
1) Unemployment is a more urgent problem than debt.
The U.S. can borrow money for 10 years at less than 3%. It can borrow money for two years at less than one-half a percent. Yes, the burden of debt is worrying. Yet lenders seem undaunted by those worries.
Meanwhile, more than 14 million Americans are out of work, more than 6 million for longer than six months. The United States has not seen so many people out of work for so long since the 1930s.
2) The deficit is a symptom of America's economic problems, not a cause.
When the economy slumps, government revenues decline and government spending surges.
Federal revenues have collapsed since 2007, down from more than 18% of national income to a little more than 14%. To put that in perspective: That's the equivalent of losing enough revenue to support the entire defense budget.
Federal spending has jumped to pay for unemployment insurance, food stamps and Medicaid benefits.
Fix the economy first, and the deficit will improve on its own.
Cut the deficit first, and the economy will get even sicker.
3) The time to cut is after the economy recovers.
Businesses are hoarding cash. Consumers are repaying debt. State and local governments are slashing jobs. (Since 2009, the number of Americans working for government has shrunk by half a million, the biggest reduction in civilian government employment since the Great Depression.) Right now, there's only one big customer out there: the federal government. How does it help anybody if the feds suddenly stop buying things and paying people?
4) The place to cut is health care, not assistance to the unemployed and poor.
The United States provides less assistance to the unemployed and the poor than almost any other democracy. It spends 60% more per person on health care than almost any other democracy -- and gets worse results. The problem is not that Americans use too much medicine. People in other countries use more. The problem is that Americans pay too much for the medicine they use. Go where the money is, cut where the waste is grossest.
5) We can collect more revenue without raising tax rates.
Republicans stand for low taxes to encourage people to work, save and invest. But how would it discourage work if we reduced the mortgage-interest deduction again? Did it hurt the economy when we reduced the maximum eligible loan to $1 million back in 1986? Do Canadians and Brits -- who lack the deduction -- work less hard than Americans?
Why are state and local taxes deductible from federally taxable income? Wouldn't higher taxes on energy encourage conservation? Who decided to allow inflation to corrode federal alcohol taxes by 80% over the past 50 years?
6) Passion does not substitute for judgment.
Republicans and conservatives have worked themselves into a frenzy of rage and contempt for President Barack Obama. House Speaker John Boehner's post-deal PowerPoint for Republican House members was actually labeled "Two Step Approach to Hold President Obama Accountable" (PDF) -- as if the supreme goal of policy in this time of economic hardship were to fix the blame for all problems on the president. This exercise in finger-pointing satisfies the emotions of the Republican base. It does not accurately explain the causes of the crisis or offer plausible remedies.
7) You can't save the system by destroying the system.
In their passion, Republicans convinced themselves that the constitutional republic and the free-enterprise system were threatened as never before. Their response? To threaten to blow up the free-enterprise system and wreck the republic unless they gained their point.
Republicans have become so gripped by pessimism and panic that they feel they have nothing to lose by rushing into a catastrophe now. But there is a lot to lose, and in these past weeks America nearly lost it. Let's hope that as America steps back from the brink, Republicans remember that it's their job to protect the system, not to smash the system in hopes of building something better from the ruins.
That's how student radicals think -- not conservatives.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/01/frum.debt.republicans/index.html?hpt=hp_p1&iref=NS1
Editor's note: David Frum writes a weekly column for CNN.com. A special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002, he is the author of six books, including "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again," and is the editor of FrumForum.
Forcing the United States to the verge of default.
Shrugging off the needs and concerns of millions of unemployed.
Protecting every single loophole, giveaway and boondoggle in the tax code as a matter of fundamental conservative principle.
Massive government budget cuts in the midst of the worst recession since World War II.
I am not alone.
Only about one-third of Republicans agree that cutting government spending should be the country's top priority. Only about one-quarter of Republicans insist the budget be balanced without any tax increases.
Yet that one-third and that one-quarter have come to dominate my party. That one-third and that one-quarter forced a debt standoff that could have ended in default and a second Great Recession. That one-third and that one-quarter have effectively written the "no new taxes pledge" into national law.
There was another way. There still is.
Give me a hammer and a church-house door, and I'd post these theses for modern Republicans:
1) Unemployment is a more urgent problem than debt.
The U.S. can borrow money for 10 years at less than 3%. It can borrow money for two years at less than one-half a percent. Yes, the burden of debt is worrying. Yet lenders seem undaunted by those worries.
Meanwhile, more than 14 million Americans are out of work, more than 6 million for longer than six months. The United States has not seen so many people out of work for so long since the 1930s.
2) The deficit is a symptom of America's economic problems, not a cause.
When the economy slumps, government revenues decline and government spending surges.
Federal revenues have collapsed since 2007, down from more than 18% of national income to a little more than 14%. To put that in perspective: That's the equivalent of losing enough revenue to support the entire defense budget.
Federal spending has jumped to pay for unemployment insurance, food stamps and Medicaid benefits.
Fix the economy first, and the deficit will improve on its own.
Cut the deficit first, and the economy will get even sicker.
3) The time to cut is after the economy recovers.
Businesses are hoarding cash. Consumers are repaying debt. State and local governments are slashing jobs. (Since 2009, the number of Americans working for government has shrunk by half a million, the biggest reduction in civilian government employment since the Great Depression.) Right now, there's only one big customer out there: the federal government. How does it help anybody if the feds suddenly stop buying things and paying people?
4) The place to cut is health care, not assistance to the unemployed and poor.
The United States provides less assistance to the unemployed and the poor than almost any other democracy. It spends 60% more per person on health care than almost any other democracy -- and gets worse results. The problem is not that Americans use too much medicine. People in other countries use more. The problem is that Americans pay too much for the medicine they use. Go where the money is, cut where the waste is grossest.
5) We can collect more revenue without raising tax rates.
Republicans stand for low taxes to encourage people to work, save and invest. But how would it discourage work if we reduced the mortgage-interest deduction again? Did it hurt the economy when we reduced the maximum eligible loan to $1 million back in 1986? Do Canadians and Brits -- who lack the deduction -- work less hard than Americans?
Why are state and local taxes deductible from federally taxable income? Wouldn't higher taxes on energy encourage conservation? Who decided to allow inflation to corrode federal alcohol taxes by 80% over the past 50 years?
6) Passion does not substitute for judgment.
Republicans and conservatives have worked themselves into a frenzy of rage and contempt for President Barack Obama. House Speaker John Boehner's post-deal PowerPoint for Republican House members was actually labeled "Two Step Approach to Hold President Obama Accountable" (PDF) -- as if the supreme goal of policy in this time of economic hardship were to fix the blame for all problems on the president. This exercise in finger-pointing satisfies the emotions of the Republican base. It does not accurately explain the causes of the crisis or offer plausible remedies.
7) You can't save the system by destroying the system.
In their passion, Republicans convinced themselves that the constitutional republic and the free-enterprise system were threatened as never before. Their response? To threaten to blow up the free-enterprise system and wreck the republic unless they gained their point.
Republicans have become so gripped by pessimism and panic that they feel they have nothing to lose by rushing into a catastrophe now. But there is a lot to lose, and in these past weeks America nearly lost it. Let's hope that as America steps back from the brink, Republicans remember that it's their job to protect the system, not to smash the system in hopes of building something better from the ruins.
That's how student radicals think -- not conservatives.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/08/01/frum.debt.republicans/index.html?hpt=hp_p1&iref=NS1
Editor's note: David Frum writes a weekly column for CNN.com. A special assistant to President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2002, he is the author of six books, including "Comeback: Conservatism That Can Win Again," and is the editor of FrumForum.
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